Why Mike Huckabee Matters - A Lot

WashingtonPost.com:

Almost nobody is giving Mike Huckabee a chance in the 2016 Republican presidential primary.

But the former Arkansas governor, who stepped down from his Fox News hosting gig on Saturday as he weighs another run, still matters. A lot.

That's because, arguably more than any other potential candidate, Huckabee has an extremely niche and devoted base of support: evangelical Christians. The ordained Southern Baptist minister is a natural fit for this group, and it's a major reason he did as well as he did in 2008.

What some people forget about Huckabee's 2008 run was that he didn't just win Iowa; he also won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Kansas, Louisiana, Tennessee and West Virginia. His eight wins, in fact, were not far behind second-place Mitt Romney's 11, and Huckabee won more than 20 percent of all votes cast, despite dropping out with more than a dozen states yet to vote.

And just about every state that Huckabee won was among the most heavily evangelical in the country. Here's a recap of the 31 states that held regular primaries or caucuses by Feb. 9, with Huckabee's showing compared to the evangelical population of the state.

In all but eight of these states, Huckabee's showing was within single digits of the evangelical population -- or better.

Now, does that mean Huckabee has a chance to win or will carry these states in 2016? Not necessarily. His devoted base is both a ticket to the dance and the reason he'll struggle to win the nomination. There quite simply aren't enough evangelicals out there. In fact, there is no state outside the South and the lower Midwest that is more than one-quarter evangelical.

(Huckabee also struggles on the financial side of things, which was a big reason he couldn't sustain his post-Iowa momentum in 2008.)

But while Huckabee monopolized this demographic in 2008, these same evangelical voters are key to plenty of candidates who are considered as formidable in 2016, up to and including Ted Cruz and Rand Paul.

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Mike Huckabee: I’ll Leave GOP Over Gay Marriage Issue

Townhall.com:

To former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, faith absolutely trumps politics, so much so that he has no reservations about casting off the R beside his name if the GOP abandons its opposition to same-sex marriage. 

“If the Republicans want to lose guys like me — and a whole bunch of still God-fearing Bible-believing people — go ahead and just abdicate on this issue, and why you’re at it, go ahead and say abortion doesn’t matter, either,” Huckabee said on the American Family Association’s radio show this week during a discussion on gay marriage. 

“Because at that point, you lose me,” he continued. “I’m gone. I’ll become an independent. I’ll start finding people that have guts to stand. I’m tired of this.”

Huckabee’s comments came after the Supreme Court announced earlier this week that they will not take up gay marriage, thereby clearing the way for same-sex marriages in Wisconsin, Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Indiana. This, of course, provides an opportunity for some GOP candidates who wish to avoid the issue to do just that:

The Supreme Court’s decision Monday clearing the way for same-sex marriages in five states may benefit an unlikely group: Republican lawmakers who can’t wait to stop talking about gay marriage, an issue that is increasingly becoming a drag for the party.

Advisors to multiple likely 2016 candidates told TIME after the news broke that they are hopeful that swift action by the Supreme Court will provide them cover. “We don’t have to agree with the decision, but as long as we’re not against it we should be okay,” said one aide to a 2016 contender who declined to be named to speak candidly on the sensitive topic. “The base, meanwhile, will focus its anger on the Court, and not on us.”

“I am utterly exasperated with Republicans and the so-called leadership of the Republicans who have abdicated on this issue when, if they continue this direction they guarantee they’re gonna lose every election in the future,” Huckabee said. “Guarantee it.”

“And I don’t understand why they want to lose,” he continued. “Because a lot of Republicans, particularly in the establishment and those who live on either the left coast or those who live up in the bubbles of New York and Washington, are convinced that if we don’t capitulate on the same sex marriage issue and if we don’t raise the white flag of surrender, and just accept it as inevitable, we’ll be losers.”

“I tell you,” he said. “It’s the absolute opposite of that.”

Taking a social conservative stand, how rare is that these days?

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